ASEAN Free Trade Area (3)

18 April 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

ASEAN Free Trade Area (3)

Last Tuesday’s column (PJ, April 16) indicated that in less than two years (by 2015) there will be full free trade in the AFTA which covers the 10 member countries of ASEAN. By that time, virtually all goods (that has at least 40% of FOB value attributable to ASEAN) imported by any member of the “600 million pax trade block” from another member, shall be subjected to zero tariff. This virtual elimination of tariff, together with the elimination of “non-tariff barriers”, is viewed to help reduce the cost of the region’s manufactured products and induce internal trade among member countries. Such a development, should improve also the competitiveness of the region’s manufactured products in the world market. The cheap products, together with the huge internal market of the AFTA is expected to attract and draw in more Foreign Direct Investment, which should be an added factor that can enhance further the economic growth of the ASEAN members .

From where I stand, it seems that the benefits expected from the creation of the AFTA, and the progressive implementation of the reduction/elimination of its tariff as well as, “non-tariff barriers”, are being realized, at least by ASEAN in general. Data available indicate that GDP per Capita in 2011 (for all 10 members) increased over that of 2010, between 7.85% and 23.88%. Total FDI inflow to ASEAN also has progressively increased from US$ 46, 896.7 million in 2009, to US$ 92, 278.6 million in 2010, and US$ 114, 110.6 million in 2011 (Asia Development Update, ADB October 2012; asean.org, as of January 2013).

That’s swell and good for ASEAN, but it’s sad to note that the Philippines has been, during the past years, left behind in terms of getting its fair share of benefits from AFTA.

This can be deduced, for example, from the Philippines’ performance when it  got only (in 2011) $US 1, 262.00 million FDI net inflow, or only 1.1%, out of the total ASEAN FDI net inflow of US$ 114,110.60 million. This places us in the sixth spot (out of 10) after Vietnam which got US$ 7,430.00 million or 6.5%. The fact that the countries in the first five spots got US$ 104,279.8 million or 91.33% of the total ASEAN FDI net inflow clearly demonstrates the disproportion.  Similar situations exist for the Philippines in terms of the other parameters like “intra-ASEAN exports”, “intra-ASEAN imports”, “ASEAN total trade”, etc. (asean.org, as of Jan 14, 2013), which, to me, indicates that we have so far also failed to tap the competitive edge that the AFTA can give to our manufacturing industry.

Since last year, however, the country has been getting good signals as well as encouragement from the international business community, especially with investment grade credit status given by Fitch. There has also been so much being heard and read about some bright prospects particularly for the manufacturing industry (Japanese and Taiwanese factories, among others, seriously eyeing relocation here) and tourism, which for the first time succeeded last year in bringing in more than 4 million tourist.

I believe that given the convergence of the “universally recognized” success of President PNoy’s “Tuwid na Daan” inspired governance, and the bright economic prospects that AFTA brings, there is today another rare opportunity available to our country, which would enable us to rapidly improve economically, such that in 10-20 years, we can hopefully achieve the dream of a “better quality of life” for most, if not all, Filipinos. I hope that this time, we won’t squander this rare opportunity the way we allowed ourselves to be deprived of such an opportunity in the late 1980s (during President Cory’s time) by scheming demagogues, and who, unfortunately succeeded in getting themselves entrenched in positions of power.

And I’ve always believed that working for this dream should not be left alone to our leaders, or the government. Those of us, citizens, longing for that “dream”, must participate as well in the effort; and there are perhaps a thousand ways by which we can get involved ranging from simple efforts like “being an upright and considerate citizen” to more forceful efforts like “going to the streets”.

However, what is now immediately at hand, and which is of prime importance, is that of getting involved in the upcoming elections. Each one who cares for the “dream” should somehow participate in influencing the outcome of the election (in whatever manner one is capable of) so that the budding successes that the present administration of President PNoy has achieved will continue to grow during the rest of his watch, and continue further into full bloom in the next administration. The nation should, now, not allow the known charlatans, self-serving, opportunist, corrupt and immoral ones to thwart the delivery of that “dream” that is now starting to be born.

Comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http://mekaniko-sl3.blogspot.com).

ASEAN Free Trade Area (2)

15 April 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

ASEAN Free Trade Area (2)

Last Friday’s column (PJ, Apr 12) traced the development of AFTA from the time the “ASEAN Declaration” creating the Association of South East Asian Nations was signed in 1967 (by ministers of Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia), up to the time the “Singapore Declaration”, or the Framework Agreement mandating the creation of ASEAN Free Trade Area in 15 years (or by 2008), was signed in 1992.

Subsequent developments, however, expanded the ASEAN and AFTA trade block membership to 10 countries, and also adjusted the final deadline for the full realization of AFTA to 2015, less than 2 years away. This means that by 2015, there would be full free trade among the 10 member countries of ASEAN, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

When this time comes, there will be zero tariff on virtually all imported goods originating from within the ASEAN (i.e., goods that have at least 40% of FOB value attributable to the 10 “trade block” members). And this condition, together with the elimination of “non-tariff barriers”, is viewed to help bring down the cost of manufactured goods that would further induce internal trade among member countries, as well as improve the region’s competitive edge as a manufacturing base in the world market (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ ASEAN_Free_Trade_Area). Cheaper production costs and the huge ASEAN internal market is to act as a magnet that would draw in more Foreign Direct Investments into the region.

I listened very recently to a talk by the University of Asia and the Pacific economist, Dr. Bernie Villegas, who shared his prediction that the advent of AFTA would enable the ASEAN to challenge, in 10-20 years, the two economic giants in the Asian Region, namely China and India.

The prediction is based on the experience of Europe which was, among other things, economically ravaged in the 1940s (during WWII). But because of the creation in 1957 of the European Economic Community, or Common Market, where the “…internal trade between the member states is aided by the removal of barriers to trade such as tariffs and border controls”, the region gradually recovered, and was even able to eventually challenge the US and Japan for economic supremacy. And as a result, as of the end of 2012, the EEC, which is now known as the European Union or EU (currently with 27 member countries, and a combined population of 501 million), has, with US$ 16.566 trillion GDP, the largest economy in the world. It is also the largest exporter in the world, and as of 2008, also the largest importer of goods and services (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the _European_Union).

Bernie Villegas adopted a novel way of stressing the potential economic value of collaboration and cooperation when he used the “batik barong” that he was wearing to give a dramatic demonstration of what can happen in the AFTA economic community in the next 20 years. This is in the light of the 10 Asian nations becoming just one single market, especially for manufactured goods.

The barong, he explained was produced by a Filipina based in Jakarta. This lady according to him thought of the idea of importing “jusi” from China, imprint it with the “batik” technology of Indonesia, then tailor it into the form of a Filipino “barong tagalog”. Because of this process alone, the “batik barong” according to him, stands to attract the interest of the 250 million Indonesians, 25 million Malaysians, and 5 million Singaporeans who are partial to “batik”. It would also attract interest of about 100 million Filipinos who are partial to “barong tagalog”, their national costume. Immediately, there could already be a potential 380 million persons for the product, just from the internal ASEAN market. And this has not even considered the possible market that the “batik barong” may generate from among the 1.3 billion mainland Chinese, where the “jusi” came from.

The way things are, the future looks bright, for ASEAN in general, as even now, the two main goals of AFTA, that of developing a competitive edge in manufacturing, and that of attracting more FDIs are being realized. However, the Philippines seem to have disproportionately trailed others during the past years, when it comes to getting its fair share of the benefits from the AFTA.

Due to space limitations, Part 3 of this article will follow in the next column. Meanwhile, comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http://mekaniko-sl3.blogspot.com).

ASEAN Free Trade Area (1)

11 April 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

ASEAN Free Trade Area (1)

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations was founded in August 8, 1967, when the Foreign Ministers of Indonesia, The Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, as well as the Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, met in Bangkok to sign a document that firstly declared “…the establishment of an Association for Regional Cooperation among the countries of South-East Asia to be known as the…ASEAN” (http://www. icnl.org/research/library/files/Transnational/bangdec.pdf).

This document signed by the ministers of the five founding nations is known as the ASEAN Declaration (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASEAN_Declaration), and embodies the desire “…to establish a firm foundation for common action to promote regional cooperation in…” accelerating economic growth, social progress, and cultural development; the promotion of peace and stability; as well as securing freedom and prosperity for all, in the region. The declaration is also said to be a “…display of solidarity [of the ASEAN] against communist expansion in Vietnam and communist insurgency within their own borders”, and believed also by some to have prevented hostilities between the Southeast Asian countries affected by the formation of Malaysia in 1963.

In February 24, 1976, the Declaration of the ASEAN Concord, “…which provides that member states cooperate in the field of trade in order to promote development and growth of new production and trade” was signed in Bali, Indonesia. A year later, on February 24, 1977, the ASEAN Preferential Trading Agreements, or PTA, which “…provides for the adoption of various instruments on trade liberalization on a preferential basis”, was signed in Manila. Then, on December 13-15, 1987, during the Third Summit Meeting of the ASEAN Heads of Government in Manila, it was “…declared that Member States shall strengthen the intra-ASEAN economic cooperation to maximize the realisation of the region’s potential in trade and development” (http://www.worldtradelaw.net/fta/agreements/afta.pdf).

All of the previously stated developments have been the building blocks that brought about the forming of a Framework Agreement that would start the ball rolling for the creation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area, or AFTA, a “…trade block agreement by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations supporting manufacturing in all ASEAN countries” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASEAN_ Free_Trade_Area). And this end result, based on my appreciation of my readings on the subject matter, seemed to be very much in the mind of the ASEAN founders.

The Framework Agreement, known as the “Singapore Declaration” was signed on January 28, 1992 in Singapore by the Heads of Government of six Southeast Asian Countries, namely, Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei, President Soeharto of Indonesia, Prime Minister Mahatir Bin Mohamad of Malaysia, President Cory Aquino of the Philippines, Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong of Singapore, and Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun of Thailand. The original six countries were later on joined by four others, namely, Vietnam (1995), Laos and Myanmar (1997), and Cambodia (1999), which increased the ASEAN and AFTA membership to ten.

The said Framework Agreement mandates the creation of AFTA in 15 years, which is supposed to be met by 2008. This deadline, subsequently, was advanced to January 1, 2003 during the Asean Economic Minister’s Meeting in September 1994 (http://www.tariffcommission.gov.ph/afta-cep.html). However, the late comers in the ASEAN, known as the CLMV, were given longer time frames to comply with obligations, so the AFTA is expected to be a full reality by 2015, which is just around the corner.

As previously mentioned AFTA is a trade block which seeks to “…increase ASEAN’s competitive edge as a production base in the world market through the elimination, within ASEAN, of tariff and non-tariff barriers.” This would be accomplished through the Common Effective Preferential Tariff scheme which “…reduce intra-regional tariffs [to 0-5%] and remove non-tariff barriers.” The lower tariff is envisioned to stimulate demand as it will make manufactured goods in AFTA cheaper, making them more attractive to member countries, and especially when compared against non-ASEAN countries.

Another goal of AFTA is to attract more Foreign Direct Investments into the ASEAN region. The cheaper cost of producing goods, because of lower tariffs and the elimination of non-tariff barriers, and the 640 million ASEAN population as an internal market can be expected to be factors that will act as a magnet to investors.

Due to space limitations, Part 2 of this article will follow in the next column. Meanwhile, comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http://mekaniko-sl3.blogspot.com).

“Bansa ng mga alipin” nga ba?

6 June 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

“Bansa ng mga alipin” nga ba?

Nakakalungkot ang balitang natanggap buhat sa Hongkong tungkol sa kinalabasan ng “Azkals vs. HK friendly game” nuong June 4 na kung saan ay nanaig ang Pilipinas (http://www.abs-cbnnews.com /sports/06/04/13/azkals-players-fans-abused-hong-kong at saka http://ph.sports.yahoo.com /news /azkals-triumph-hong-kong-under-hostile-crowd-023000755.html). Nakakalungkot dahil sa pambubusabos na ginawa ng mga intsik hindi lamang sa pagkatao ng mga kababayan natin na naroroon, kundi sa atin ding bansa. Ang balitang ito ay napatotohanan na din nang ibat-ibang mga kababayan natin na nakasaksi, at agad na naipabatid dito sa atin sa pamamagitan ng “twitter.”

Ayon sa aking nabasa ay tinutugtog pa lang ang ating pambansang awit ay walang respetong nagsisigawan nang “boo!” ang mga intsik at pinapakitaan ang mga Pilipino nang “dirty finger”.  Katakut-takut din daw ang ibinabatong mga mura at mga bote sa mga manlalaro at mga kababayan natin na naroon upang manood lang ng naturingang “friendly game.” At ang gawaing ito ay ipinakita di lang ng mga matatanda kundi mga kabataang intsik din.

Isa sa mga naibalitang pang-insulto o pagmamaliit na ginawa nitong mga intsik ay ang lantarang pasigaw na pagbansag na “slave nation” o di kaya’y “bansa ng mga alipin” ang Pilipinas. Sa totoo lang, ang unang sumilakbo sa akin ay ang galit, nguni’t nang di kalaunan, sa pagninilay-nilay, ito ay natuloy na lamang sa pagkalungkot. Naisip ko kasi, bandang huli, na di dapat tapatan ng galit ang pangyayaring ito. Bakit? Dahil sa di naman totoo! At saka naniniwala akong ang pikon ay talo.

Unang-una, hindi malayong ang batayan nila sa pagsabi nito ay ang pagkakaroon ng mga 140,000 na mga “bagong bayani” natin sa HK, na kung saan ay may mga 30,000 na namamasukan bilang “domestic worker”, o tinagurian nilang “amah” (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Filipino). Nguni’t yuong mga kababayan  natin na nanduon ay 0.14% lang ng isangdaang milyon na populasyon ng Pilipinas. At pangalawa, bagama’t marami  sa mga namasukan na “domestic worker” ay may mga mataas na pinag-aralan, sinadya nilang magsakripisyong namasukan ng ganoon dahil sa kagustuhan lang na magkaroon ng mas magandang pagkakakitaan para sa kinabukasan ng mga mahal sa buhay.

Hindi totoo, at lubhang mali ang pagbabansag na ginawa ng mga taga-HK sa Pilipinas dahil sa ang alipin ay isang tao na pag-aari ng iba, na kung saan ay puedeng ibenta ng may-ari. Walang ganoon na kalagayan dito sa Pilipinas.

At kung mayroon mang mga bayan na ang mga mamamayan ay mga alipin ng kanilang pamahalaan, tiyak na hindi kasama ang Pilipinas sa mga bayan na ito. Masasabi ko ito dahil sa maraming kalayaan na tinatamasa ng mga Pilipino. Kasama na dito ang kalayaan sa pagpili  ng kanilang mga pinuno, ang kalayaan sa pamamahayag, kalayaan sa pagkakaroon ng anak, kalayaan ukol sa relihiyon, atbp.

Sa totoo lang, malaking pasasalamat ang dapat nating tanawin sa HK dahil sa pagkakataong naibibigay nila sa mga kababayan natin na magkaroon ng mabuti-buting pagkakakitaan. Nguni’t sa kabilang dako ay dapat din naman nilang bigyang-halaga ang kabutihang tinatamasa nila dahil sa pagkakatalaga doon ng mga kababayan nating walang pag -aalinlangang nakatuwang nila sa pagpapalago ng kanilang kabuhayan, at nangasipag-alaga ng kanilang mga pamilya. Nakakalungkot; kasi, dito sa atin, pinapahalagahan natin ang paninilbihan ng ating mga manggagawa, at lalo na ng ating mga kasambahay.

Kung mayroon mang umaalipin sa maraming Pilipino ngayon, tiyak na hindi ang bansa, kundi ang kahirapang dinaranas nila ngayon. At ito rin ang dahilan upang marami sa atin ang nagpasiyang magsakripisyo at magibangbayan. At ito ay hindi upang magpaalipin, kundi ang magbahagi ng kanilang galing at kakayahan sa mga bayang salat sa mga tauhang katulad nila, kapalit ng pagkakaroon ng maganda-gandang pagkakakitaan. At ang sakripisyong ito ay kalimitang para sa kapakanan ng kanilang mga mahal sa buhay. Ang galing at kakayahan ng mga Pilipino ay lubos na napatunayan na sa buong mundo kung kaya’t sila ay lubhang kinagigiliwang kunin na magtrabaho sa ibang bansa.

Sa aking pananaw, ang kahirapang namamayani sa atin ngayon ay magkakaroon din ng katapusan. At bakit ko nasasabi ito? Dahil sa magandang ipinapahiwatig ng mga pagbabagong nangyayari na ngayon lang natin nararanasan.

Unang-una ay ang pagkakaroon ng isang pamunuan, sa katauhan ni Pangulong Noynoy, na di nadungisan ng kurapsiyon, at siyang dahilan kung kaya’t kanyang nakayanan (sa pamamagitan ng kanyang pangunguna sa pagtataguyon ng “Tuwid na Daan”) na unti-unti na nailalayo ang ibat-ibang bahagi ng pamahalaan sa nakasanayang kurapsiyon. Dahil dito ay nagsimulang magkaroon ng tiwala ang mga namumuhunan upang palaguin ang kani-kanilang mga negosyo. At bagama’t umuusbong pa lang ang bumubuting kalagayang pinansiyal at takbo ng ekonomiya ng bansa ay tila sapat na upang lubhang mapabago at nagpaangat ang tingin, pananaw at tiwala sa atin ng “international economic community.”

Sa unang pagkakataon din ay nabigyan tayo (at tatlong sunod-sunod pa) ng “investment grade rating” ng “sovereign debt rating agencies” na siyang isang hudyat na hinihintay ng mga namumuhunan upang magpuntahan sila at magnegosyo sila dito (kagaya ng pagtatayo ng mga pabrica at ibat-ibang mga pagawaan). Kapag nangyari ito ay lalong tataas ang paglago ng tinatawag na gross domestic product, o GDP, na siyang sukat ng lebel ng ekonomiya ng isang bansa. At habang tumataas ito ay lalong darami naman ang puwedeng makuhang trabaho ng mga mamamayan. Kapag nangyari na ito ay dito na magsisimula ang pagsugpo natin sa mapag-aping kahirapan, na kagaya ng nakayanang gawin ng tinatawag na apat na “Asian Tigers” (Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, HK) sa loob lamang ng isang henerasyon (buhat 20 hanggang 30 taon) nuong nakaraang siglo.

Ang pagbabago ay nagsisimula pa lamang, at malamang ay tunay na mapapakinabangan lang ng susunod na mga henerasyon, na sa aking pananaw ay siya namang tunay na layunin ng karamihan sa atin na naghahangad ng mas-mabuting kalidad ng buhay para sa mga Pilipino. At ang kaganapan nito ang siya na ring pansagot upang di na tayo mamaliitin at bubusabusin ng ibang mga lahi. Sa aking palagay ay papunta na tayo duon, kaya lang kailangang umalalay din ang mga mamamayan upang ang hangarin na ito ay masunod.

Sa palagay ko ay magiging maayos ang takbo ng bayan  sa susunod na tatlong taon habang nandiyan pa si Pangulong Noynoy. Ang kailangan nating intindihin na mga mamamayang naghahangad na magapi ang kahirapan ay ang pagpupursigi at pagiging aktibo sa pagsasagawa ng mga hakbang upang ang susunod, at mga susunod pa, na pangbansang pamunuan ay yaong mayroong mga pangarap para sa bayan na katugma ng kay Pangulong Noynoy (na di pang-sarili lamang). Pag nagawa natin ito ay malamang na magkakatotoo na din ang mabuting pangarap natin para sa ating mga anak at apo.

Ang puna at reaksiyon ay ikalulugod ng sumusulat at mapapadala sa pamamamgitan ng email (sl3.mekaniko.com) o di kaya’y sa kanyang blog (http://mekaniko-sl3.blogspot.com).

Quality of the 2013 Elections (3)

30 May 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

Quality of the 2013 Elections (3)

In the previous two parts of this article (PJ, 17 & 21 May) I advanced a view that the impact of the 2013 elections on the future of our country will depend on the quality of the officials that will get elected; and such quality would in turn depend on the interplay among at least four factors, namely: the quality of the candidates, the quality of the campaign, the quality of the voting system, and the quality of the voters.

I further surmised that there’s not much improvement in the quality of the candidates because of the predominance of dynasts, dynast “wanabees”, as well as those who can be lumped under the “undesirables” category. This condition, to my understanding, turned off voters and was once more a major factor for the low turnout of voters.

The campaign ended up (at least) as unwieldy and as dirty as the previous elections despite the effort of the Comelec to install discipline in the campaign and level the playing field. The effort started to crumble when certain sectors identified with the Catholic Church disregarded the “rules” on banners and posters, and finally collapsed when the Supreme Court issued halt orders for the rules that the Comelec issued.

There was however a marked improvement in the peace and order during the campaign which can be attributed to the success of the DILG/PNP in operating their “Task Force SAFE” and “Oplan Last Two Weeks”.

I consider this year’s voting system as an improvement over that of 2010 (our first nationwide e-voting experience) despite the 200 PCOS that were reported as defective and the 18,617 transmission failures. I also believe that the voting system has not caused massive disenfranchisement of voters except for those who purposely succumbed to the massive vote buying that occurred this year. As I personally witnessed while voting in my hometown in Tarlac I saw how mobile PCOS technicians were around, ready to trouble shoot problematic ones. I also was able to monitor how election officials were able to appropriately address the problem of a PCOS machine that totally failed to read ballots by securing them for eventual processing using another machine.

 The fact that most of the local canvassing and proclamations were done within 24 hours of the closing of elections does not make me worry too much about the reported failure of PCOS machines to electronically transmit election results as this may just be due to network problems. I frequently experience them (daily) with my smart phone (i.e. fluctuating or disappearing signals for text, email and other web applications) especially  when there is a sudden deluge of transmissions like during Christmas, New Year, Valentine’s Day, Easter Sunday, Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, etc. Also there is after all the parallel count (electronic and manual) being done by the credible PPCRV as a counter check to the Comelec count using the 304 certificates of canvass or COCs.

These observations, to me, reflect  the existence of proper plans and programs prepared by the Comelec and other government agencies to get the country through the election successfully.

There seem to be digressing threads between the national and local elections when it comes to voters’ choices, with the national leaning more towards quality considerations. However, the quality of the voters as regards local elections is generally appalling because, as mentioned earlier, of the predominance of dynast and the “wannabees”, as well as the “undesirables”, who probably, because of the e-voting, resorted to massive vote buying, to which the electorate succumbed. There are of course exceptional spots where voter quality shone, one example of which is the case of now Congresswoman-elect Leny Robredo.

It is also my view that, by and large, the quality of this year’s crop of elected officials is the same as that of the previous elections, and this is so, because there’s really not much to choose from in the first place. As we say in manufacturing the resulting quality of the output depends to a large extent on the quality of the inputs.

So what would be the impact of the results of the 2013 elections to our country’s future?

To my mind, there has been no significant improvement in three of the four factors that I consider as relevant in determining the resulting quality of elected officials. And as such, we end up with incoming government officials of probably the same quality as those that would be ending their terms.

But come to think of it, despite the dearth of quality government officials during the last three years, and with the first two years practically wasted and used in clearing the “mines” laid out by the previous administration, President Noynoy and his team has (mainly on the strength of his credibility) accomplished improving not only our country’s economic standing but also tremendously improved the regard of the international economic community for the Philippines. This is manifested in the current economic fundamentals (e.g., sustained low interest rates and inflation, high foreign reserves, improving tax collection, stock market performance, etc.), the upgrades to investment grade by three highly rated sovereign rating agencies (two of them NRSROs recognized by the US SEC), as well as the numerous accolades given us by the international economic community (e.g. Asia’s rising tiger, emerging market, etc.).

In effect, I think there are three significant factors that would positively work for the President as he starts the second half of his term. These are the positive domestic and international economic conditions that he will start with, a better legislative support that he can expect for his programs, and the solid three years of (hopefully) being able to pursue his program of government without the detriments experienced during the first two years of his term. And if I would hazard a projection, the execution of his “Philippine Development Plan” should come out as a grand success if based on the performance of the last twelve months.

As I have opined in an earlier column, I would not have much concern on how our country would turn out in the next three years, because we will still have President Noynoy running the country. My concern rather is more on who would end up taking over from him in 2016 to continue what has been started, and sustain the improvements so that the gains would ultimately be enjoyed by most if not all Filipinos.

My thinking on this is that our next leader must be as untainted and as sincere as President Noynoy, and as focused in fighting corruption and advocating “Tuwid na Daan”. And ideally, to me, this next leader should be the one endorsed by the President so that we can continue to progress closer to our dream of demolishing poverty and having a better Quality of Life for all Filipinos.

Comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http: //mekaniko-sl3. blogspot.com).

Quality of the 2013 Elections (2)

20 May 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

Quality of the 2013 Elections (2)

As mentioned in my last column (PJ, 17May’13) I had the chance to exchange views last election day with some of my town mates regarding the possible impact of the recent elections on the future of the country, and I for one view it as dependent on the quality of the elected officials which would in turn be dependent on the interplay among at least four factors, namely: the quality of the candidates, the quality of the campaign, the quality of the voting system, and the quality of the voters.

To my mind there has been no significant improvement with respect to the quality of the candidates since this election season’s crop is as usual dominated by dynasts and dynast “wannabees”, as well as persons who are objectionable, of questionable qualifications, or of dubious character. Candidates seem to be drafted, once again, primarily on the basis of “winability” which perhaps added to the electorate’s frustrations that caused 25% of the 52 million registered voters to once more boycott this year’s polls.

The quality of the campaign seems to have taken off to a good start with the rules set by the
Comelec which to my mind would level the election playing field. However, the effectiveness these rules (e.g. limits on the sizes of posters and tarpaulin banners and the sites where they can be posted, limits on media exposure, disallowing the distribution of expensive promotion materials/cash as a check against vote buying, ban on massive cash withdrawals before the elections, etc.) fizzled out when some elements identified with the Catholic church decided not to comply and the halt orders were issued by the Supreme court against these Comelec issued rules. What resulted was a campaign season which to me (at the least) is as dirty and as lopsided in comparison with previous ones.

There was however a generally perceived improvement in the implementation of peace and order during the campaign period which as substantiated by DILG/PNP reports and data indicate a reduction this year in election related violence by 50% as compared to 2010, and by 69% versus 2007.

Despite the reported failure of the 200 PCOS machines (out of 78,000 fielded) and the reported 18,617 transmission failures, I would consider the quality of the voting system still good, and that it was able to deliver a credible election as well as results.

And why do I take this stand? Well because I’m aware of two such machine failures in my home town and I saw for myself how the mobile (motorcycle riding) PCOS technicians monitor the PCOS machines to address technical problems. I also was able to monitor how the board of election inspectors, or BEIs, in one clustered precinct addressed the case of a total failure of a machine to read ballots by securing all of the filled-up ballots and then using another PCOS machine to read them and print out election returns. This move, which I presume is part of a protocol prepared by the Comelec in addressing anticipated PCOS related problems, prevented the disenfranchisement of voters of that clustered precinct.

Also, the 200 defective machines account for only 0.26% of all the 78,000 that were deployed all over the country for the elections. And on the basis of the 40 million who voted, each machine would, on the average, account for about 513 votes…and for the 200 machines, about 100,000 votes. In terms of the national (or senatorial elections) this number would not change the winners nor their standings in the magic twelve. On the other hand, in terms of the local elections, I believe the impact of the 200 defective machines in terms of affecting the results of the election is nil, given that their incidence is widely dispersed over the country; and that the local election officials (as demonstrated earlier) have the technical infrastructure, as well as the needed procedural mechanisms to effectively troubleshoot problems resulting from defective PCOS machines.

The e-voting, I believe, has practically eliminated the problem with ballot switching, dagdag bawas, as well as inaccuracies/mistakes (accidental or intentional) in tallying during the canvassing of votes at the precinct and municipal level. However this caused the electoral combatants to shift to massive and rampant vote buying to skew the election results in their favor. And there have been reports of very creative variations in the techniques devised to execute vote buying, some of which are pre-shaded ballots in connivance with some BEIs, preventing known supporters of opponents from voting by marking their fingers with indelible ink in exchange for cash, substituting persons for voters who agreed to forego voting (also a form of flying voters), etc. Despite this however, I believe that the results that the voting system churns out reflects accurately the voters intentions since I’m sure that they are fully aware of what their ballots favor when they feed them to the PCOS machine which conducts the count without any human intervention.

I also think that the Comelec and the PPCRV came up with an effective check and balance mechanism in the canvassing and consolidation of the votes with the different manner they utilized in coming up with a final tally. PPCRV conducted an electronic tally based on electronic election returns transmitted to the, but the results of this this tally is compared with a parallel but manual tally where raw data from election returns are encoded and results consolidated. The Comelec on the other hand conducts its tally on the basis of the 304 certificates of canvass or COCs coming from the cities, provinces and overseas absentee voting centers. For a credible election result, the results of all the three canvassing and consolidating systems will have to be similar.

And with respect to the reported 18,617 transmission failures, I believe that these failures were due to incidental glitches in the transmission network and were not permanent failures which disenfranchised voters. The transmission of election results connected with these reported problems, I believe, were eventually done successfully because otherwise the results of the three parallel canvassing and consolidation of votes conducted by the Comelec and PPCRV would not have been similar and proclamations of winners would not have been made.

With respect to the quality of the voters, there seems to be two conflicting threads. I believe that a large portion of voters for the local elections seem to have been swayed by the vote buying deluge as discerned from the quality of local election winners in Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. The indication however varies when it comes to the national (or senatorial) election where the winners, except for a few, are by my measure qualified, competent and deserving of the title of Senator.

Due to space limitations, the last and 3^rd part of this article will be featured in a subsequent column. Meanwhile comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http: //mekaniko-sl3. blogspot.com).

Quality of the 2013 Elections

16 May 2013

Mekaniko

By Jaime T. Lopez, III

sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com

Quality of the 2013 Elections

The 2013 elections have come to pass, and like in the last so many decades, I exercised my right to suffrage in my hometown Moncada, Tarlac. While there, I had the opportunity to interact with some town mates about the elections in general, as we also exchanged views about the effect(s) of the election’s results on the future of the country.

Personally, I’m inclined to liken the elections to a production process that produces officials as its product. And as to whether the product that the process churns out would be good or bad, shall depend, I dare say, on the quality of various factors, among them: the quality of the raw materials (or candidates), the quality of the way the raw materials are prepared (or the campaign), the quality of the process itself (or the voting system), and the quality of the people manning the process (or the voters).

As to the quality of the candidates. Well, my take on this is that what we seem to have this time is the usual mix of candidates prominently led by the dynasts, as well as celebrities with ambitions of building their own dynasties. There are also some independents as well as “small” people with nationalistic tendencies and perhaps with genuine willingness to serve for the good of his/her community. Some are also convicted persons, persons of dubious character as well as nuisance candidates.

My perception is that, generally, the major qualification for a person being drafted is “winnability”. This to me connotes the availability of a supporting infrastructure that can deliver a victory for the target elective position. There may be nothing wrong with this criterion per se, except that it seems to stand dominant over competence, track record, morality, integrity, or even sincere public service…all of which can be conveniently disregarded in the interest of preserving the “family political business”.

About 25% of about 51 million registered voters (or about 12.75 million) do not participate in the elections. I understand that the statistics is more or less similar with this year’s elections and I’m inclined to believe, based on reactions I got from some of the non-voters, that it is out of frustration with the choices.

As to the quality of the campaign. The 2013 election season seems to have started well with the effort of the Commission on Elections to level the election playing field as well as minimize election related violence.  They issued resolutions that set limits to poster sizes as well as established sites for their posting , set limits to media exposures, disallowed distribution of materials/cash (as a check against vote buying), implemented the strict implementation of an expanded gun ban, and an expanded liquor ban.

The effectiveness of their effort however started to wane when an archdiocese of the Catholic church decided to disregard the Comelec rule and installed an oversized banner (announcing their senatorial preferences), which, although objected to by the commission, was allowed through a decision by the Supreme Court. From this point on, various oversized posters and banners sprouted and once more dirtied the fences, walls of establishments, posts, etc. along main roads. Nothing also came out of the effort to set lower limits to the use of radio and TV as a campaign venue, the expanded 5 day ban on liquor, and even an attempted effort to limit the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks 6 days before the election as a check against vote buying. All of these initiatives were disallowed through halt orders by the Supreme Court.

Personally, I agree with the Comelec’s initiatives which I believe can greatly level the election playing field and improve the chances of other, and maybe better, candidates. However, these provisions need to be incorporated in the country’s election code so that its implementation can no longer be blocked, and I believe the legislative branch of government has more than enough time (3 long years) to work out the needed amendments.

There seems to be a significant improvement however with respect to election related violence as this year’s election was generally more peaceful and which I would attribute to the successful implementation of the PNP’s Task Force Safe and Fair Elections (SAFE) started last November, and together with DILG, it’s  Oplan “Last Two Weeks” (http://pnp.gov.ph/portal/press-news-releases/latest-news/1132-dilg-pnp-bares-oplan-last-two-weeks). As per  the PNP spokesman, there were only 72 election-related violence incidents (as of Saturday, May 11)which is down by 50% as compared to 176 incidents posted in 2010, and is down by about 69% versus the 229 incidents recorded in 2007 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/ World-News/2013/05/13/Peaceful-election-season-in-Philippines-ends-with-violence/UPI-44561368452423/).There were however 62 deaths as of election day, based on Philippine National Police data (Thttp://www.philstar.com/headlines/2013/04/26/935495/violent-incidents-go-mid-term-elections-draw-near-phl).

Due to space limitations, the continuation of this article will be featured in the next column. Meanwhile comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko@gmail.com) or through this writer’s blog (http: //mekaniko-sl3. blogspot.com).