Saturday, May 17, 2014

Random thoughts and lessons from the Bohol tragedy



24 October 2013

The magnitude 7.2 earthquake that devastated Bohol (and also affected Cebu, Negros, Syquijor and parts of Mindanao) about a week ago turned out to be caused by the vertical movement of an unknown fault system – to as much as 3 meters in some parts - which has finally been pinpointed in Barangay Anunang, Inabanga, northeast of Tagbilaran, after 7 days of searching by Phivolcs personnel.

Prior to the October 15 earthquake, it seems that (based on available records) Bohol was also hit last year (December 19, 2012) by a 4.6 magnitude earthquake that had its epicenter in the island itself. This is about 54 kilometers east of Tagbilaran, around the vicinity of the town of Jagna which is practically located in the opposite side of the island, about 50 kilometers away, with respect to Inabanga.

So far, according to reports, the volcanologists have already surveyed about 5 kilometers of the fault – and are continuing to trace its extent - and they say that faults like these can run up to hundreds of kilometers.  So, I won’t be surprised if they’ll eventually find out that the Jagna epicenter Is connected to the Inabanga fault.

A number of sinkholes in different parts of the Bohol also were discovered after the earthquake. This was explained by state geologists as something that can happen because underneath a big part of the island is limestone which can easily be eroded by underground water flow. Over a long period, water would carve out a big portion of this limestone deposit creating an underground void which, during a strong earthquake would cause the ground on top to cave in, creating the sink hole.

So far more than 2,000 aftershocks have been recorded, with some hitting magnitudes of as much as 4.5 to 5. This prevents Boholanos from returning to their abodes (for safety reasons) and as a result, hundreds of thousands of persons are forced to live temporarily in tents.

The government, as well as the citizenry responded fast in providing rescue and material aid to the victims, particularly in Bohol, but the effectiveness of distribution is hampered by the extensive damage also to road systems, as well as landslides which isolated Barangays, especially those that are in the remote mountain areas. The armed forces of the Philippines have resorted to using helicopters already to reach, and deliver aid to, the isolated barangays,  but TV footages show that the victims, particularly children, out of desperation, resort – as of the seventh day - to waiting by the roadside with signs asking for food (or help) from vehicles that pass by. In the fishing villages, the fishermen are scared to go out fishing, especially in the evening, for fear of the rather strong aftershocks.

Because of the logistical difficulty that we have encountered, it just crossed my mind that the country misses the support that the USA can give during natural disasters, like when they provided helicopters, in the past, to facilitate the delivery of aid to disaster victims. Their absence this time is understandable though, since they are still reeling from the recent government shutdown that they had. Their absence, to me, however, just emphasizes their being our true friends, because no other country (as far as I perceive, and in the absence of the US) have pitched in to assist us in the manner that the US can, and have done.

It is also so revolting that “epal” politicians don’t even have the decency to refrain from campaigning, in deference to the grave conditions brought about by the disaster, and still pursue their ends callously by providing aid in bags brandishing their name. So disappointing also is the reported hoarding of aid materials by some politicians, as well as fights over “turf” (as in who is authorized to distribute) at the expense of the disaster victims.

As of the writing of this article, I’ve read of reports that all roads are already passable and that all Bohol towns are already accessible and connected. This will make faster the delivery of aid to victims. But one shining act in all of this misfortune is the gesture of the President in immediately and personally going to Bohol to show his sympathy and concern for the citizens there. Reports from the ground there say that the gesture is well appreciated by the victims, and raised their spirits. Some even said that they consider his presence even more valuable than the material aid that they are receiving.

 Earlier today, the President, just back from a state visit in South Korea, is once again back in Bohol to see to make sure that the flow of aid to the province is flowing smoothly, and he reportedly intends to sleep also in a tent as a gesture of “pakikipagisa” with the hundreds of thousands of still displaced victims of the disaster.

The 7.2 magnitude earthquake is a very sad and very unfortunate incident because of the loss of lives, property and the massive damage to our historical legacy. But there is a very important value that this disaster may have served. And this is that it could be used as the model in preparing for the “big earthquake” that is just waiting to happen in Metro Manila on account of the Marikina Valley Fault System that experts say could trigger a “large scale earthquake with a magnitude of 7 or higher.”

When this happens, it is predicted that the death toll will be as high as 35,000, about 120,000 or more injured, and about 3 million persons needed to be evacuated.

The Bohol 7.2 magnitude earthquake, more than ever, emphasizes the reality of the Marikina Valley Fault threat. Since Bohol provides us now with more or less the needed empirical information, maybe the state can make use of these data to prepare and implement programs that would mitigate damage, injuries, and loss of lives that an earlier study projected (and that I believe was based on theoretical inputs).

Comments/reactions will be appreciated and can be sent through this writer’s email (sl3.mekaniko @gmail.com) or this writer’s blog (http://mekaniko-sl3.blogspot.com).

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